Donald Trump's victory at the polls spells a new era for the USA, which will also have ramifications for the Caribbean region.
Dr Richard Bernal, Pro Vice Chancellor, Global Affairs, at the University of the West Indies (UWI), said there are several concerns the Caribbean should be aware of moving forward, involving critical issues such as trade, finance and global security.
Speaking at the Vice Chancellor's forum at the UWI, Mona, entitled 'The Caribbean Say on USA Today', Dr Bernal said these issues need immediate focus if the region is to progress.
1. Trade
There are numerous trade agreements with the US however this is predominantly in the area of goods, and Dr Bernal says there is the need for an expansion into services.
He says this can mean a transition into investment into services, however this may require the liberalization of policies which can mean a possible loss in revenue for Caribbean territories.
According to a Forbes report, Trump’s mercantilist trade plan calls for using the power of the Executive Order to impose a 45% tariff on a broad swath of imports from China, 35% tariffs on items produced in Mexico, and arbitrary tariffs of between 15% – 45% for any country deemed to be a “currency manipulator.”
Prime targets include the European Union, Japan and South Korea, which, taken together with China and Mexico, represent five out of America’s top six trading partners.
These protectionist tariffs would be the precursor to a destructive chain of events that would harm manufacturers and consumers in both the U.S. and Asia and would lead to disrupted supply chains, imploded trade relationships and, ultimately, trade wars.
2. Global Security
Dr Bernal said the issue of global security will remain one of continuous focus and added that much more technical support and cooperation will be needed from the US.
There are chances of increased security policies for travel in and out of the US, which will also affect the Caribbean.
3. Finance
Dr Bernal said Caribbean countries should be concerned with financial de-risking measures between Caribbean territories and the US.
The de-risking process, that is, cutting financial ties with clients or businesses considered high-risk, can have fallout effects on Caribbean investments and other Caribbean businesses.
He says so far Caribbean countries have complied, but the matter remains open moving forward, referring to Belize, which has received severe financial penalties after failing to comply with several US finance agreement requirements.
He also mentioned the region’s high financial debt which he says is detrimental to the Caribbean’s progress.
“It is time for a new initiative for small middle-income countries (like the Caribbean) which are highly indebted. It has reached a point where it needs a ‘grand bargain’, a new intiative.”
4. Climate change
Dr Bernal says this is a continuous issue of paramount importance for the region and may require additional focus considering the new policies of the Trump administration.
“This will require some serious lobbying as Republicans are not particularly strong on environmental issues….we’re going to have to work hard on that.”
5. Energy
Dr Bernal says he thinks there will be continued assistance from the US in terms of exploring sources for renewable energy however he thinks this will continue to be in the form of technical assistance within the private sector.
Trump plans to employ the country's coal, shale gas and "other American energy sources", including "safe fracking", which could have a negative effect on Trinidad and Tobago, which is one of the USA's suppliers of liquified natural gas.
6. Travel
Immigration policies may be tightened moving forward, which can also have severe results for Caribbean workers seeking employment or travel within the US.
Trump said he would "Restore integrity to our immigration system by prioritizing the interests of Americans first. Enforce our immigration laws – at the border and at the workplace. Build a border wall and end sanctuary cities. Send criminal aliens home. Welcome those who embrace our way of life, but keep out immigrants and refugees who don’t through rigorous vetting."
Dr Bernal emphasized a united approach toward in working together with the new US Republican government moving forward, in order to ensure a positive environment for Caribbean policies.
“We have to work with whichever administration is in. It is possible to succeed with both Republican and Democratic administrations.”
“As we continue to build a fourth border of the US, it is for us to make sure our goals are incorporated into the policy.”
“We need to move on it quickly and we need to move on it collectively and proactively.”
